Flipping scripts: On the Haryana and J&K election results
BJP and INDIA bloc emerge clear winners in Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir
Contrary to pollsters’ predictions, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has managed to retain power in Haryana by increasing its seats from 40 to 48 and vote share from 36.5% to 39.9%, securing a third consecutive term. The Congress’s vote share also accrued a whopping 11 points to register 39.1% but its seat tally increased marginally, by six, to 37. The two regional parties catering to the influential Jat community, the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) and Jannayak Janta Party (JJP) did poorly as their combined vote share fell from 21% in 2019 to 7% in 2024, aiding the Congress. But the BJP’s astute social engineering, gaining support from non-Jat OBCs by propping up leaders from among them, besides its strengths in urban areas, helped it sail through. This is a remarkable achievement for the BJP which was saddled not just with anti-incumbency but also facing a resurgent Congress that was projected to win more seats. While the farmer and wrestler-led agitations helped the Congress to do well in rural areas, it was not enough to break the BJP’s social coalition there or dent the BJP’s urban strongholds. The grand old party’s bugbear, a divided party leadership, did not help matters. The win also adds gloss to the BJP’s central leadership that had taken some flak since the party’s underwhelming performance in the 2024 general election. The Congress will have to go back to the drawing board to rework its strategy of upending the BJP in the Hindi heartland.
The results in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) were two-faced. The BJP increased its share by five points to 45% in Hindu-majority Jammu, helping it win in 29 seats and retain its seat shares in the region. The National Conference-Congress-led alliance (INDIA bloc) won in four seats reserved for Scheduled Tribes. In the Kashmir Valley, the INDIA bloc changed the script from a decade ago by winning 41 out of the 47 seats and reducing the PDP to three seats. The INDIA bloc’s ability to compete in Jammu and dominate in Kashmir was enough for it to win a decisive majority of 49 seats, a number that should have been higher if not for rebel candidates winning in a few seats. The BJP’s strategy of isolating the mainstream polity in Kashmir and to use delimitation to manufacture a majority were not successful as the electorate clearly favoured the strongest opposition to it, in the Valley in particular. Chief Minister-designate Omar Abdullah will have his task cut out and will strive first to get statehood for J&K. An empowered government that has the acceptance of the people, who participated in good numbers, should help the prospects of peace in the conflict-prone province. The BJP-led Centre must heed the mandate and allow the government to function and fulfil its promises.