Heartland murmurs: on the Haryana Assembly elections
Haryana may throw up surprises after the realignments
In Haryana, the incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) faces a strident challenge from the Congress, where campaigning for the Assembly election ends in a day. All 90 Assembly seats will go to the polls on October 5. Though the contest appears to be bipolar, between the BJP and the Congress on the surface, a few other formations and hundreds of independents could alter the familiar patterns of voter mobilisation. The Jannayak Janta Party (JJP), a former partner of the BJP, is in an alliance with the Azad Samaj Party (Kanshi Ram), and the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) is with the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). The Communist Party of India (Marxist) and the Haryana Lokhit Party are also in the fray. After seat sharing negotiations with the Congress failed, the Aam Aadmi Party has fielded candidates across the State. The BJP has tried to defend its track record of 10 years in power and consolidate the OBC voters — one third of the total — through the campaign. Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini has been presented as a symbol of the party’s commitment to empowering the OBC. The BJP is also trying to get a share of the Dalit votes.The Congress has been a favourite of the Dalits who make up 20% of the State’s voters. The alliances, of the JJP-ASP and the INLD-BSP, could influence the two major voting blocs in the State — the Jats and the Dalits. The Congress has managed to sustain its offensive posture though factionalism threatened to derail its campaign. The party has targeted the BJP on talking points such as a threat to the Constitution, the Agnipath scheme for military recruitment, unemployment and price rise. The BJP is also facing a problem of plenty in the State. Having inducted many leaders from other parties, it is now faced with their competing claims. The BJP’s victories in Haryana in two consecutive Assembly elections were largely due to the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and good social engineering that mobilised the non-Jat communities of the State. Haryana will be a test for the party on both counts this time. An absence from power for 10 years has cut the Congress some slack in the eyes of voters. Rahul Gandhi’s new role as the Leader of Opposition in the Lok Sabha will also face a test in the State. While the BJP’s regional leadership is relatively less formidable than the Congress’s, their respective impact on the outcome can be unpredictable. The Congress also has a history of undermining its own prospects with excessive intrigues.