Waiting for the reformist: On the Iran election
Iran’s theocratic state is unlikely to give space to a popular reformist
As no candidate managed to win 50% vote in the first round of Iran’s snap presidential elections, the country is headed for a run-off on July 5 between the top two vote getters — reformist Masoud Pezeshkian and conservative Saeed Jalili. Mr. Pezeshkian, a surgeon and lawmaker who was the Minister of Health in the government of reformist President Mohammed Khatami, won 42.5% votes, while Mr. Jalili, Iran’s former chief nuclear negotiator, got 38.8% votes. Conservative Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf finished third with 13.8% vote share. The election, which was necessitated by President Ebrahim Raisi’s death in a helicopter crash in May, is taking place at a crucial time for Iran. There is much public anger amid economic hardships and heightened cultural policing. Iran is facing pressure to rein in its proxies, mainly Yemen’s Houthis and Lebanon’s Hezbollah, particularly after the Israel-Hamas war began. Iran is also expanding its nuclear programme, defying international pressure, and tensions with Israel rocketed in April when Tehran launched a missile attack towards the Jewish state after its embassy building in Damascus was bombed. A new President, reformist or conservative, is unlikely to change core policies, but the highest elected official in the republic can have a say on how critical policies are being implemented.
In the past, reformist politicians such as Mr. Khatami and Hassan Rouhani won huge mandates on promises of change, but did little in opening up the system that is tightly controlled by the Shia clergy. The failure to reform the system from within and alleviate the economic woes, which are a result of the western sanctions, have turned sections of the electorate apathetic. There was a time when Iran’s clerical rulers would invoke the high participation of voters as a measure of popular legitimacy for the revolutionary regime, which is partly representative and fully theocratic. If the voter turnout was above 80% in 2009, it was a record low this year — 39.9% This is not a surprise. All branches of the state are under conservative control, and several reformist politicians were barred from contesting. Even if reformists win, they are constrained by unelected institutions such as the office of the Supreme Leader and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The near-total dominance of the conservatives over the institutions and the clergy’s refusal to change are hollowing out even the limited democracy that the revolution had promised. Economic hardships and repression over the Islamic code are adding fuel to the fire. Iran can take pride that it held a presidential election amidst crises. But its rulers should also take a cue from the growing dissent and falling voter interest, and be ready for political and social reforms.