Unending war: On the multi-party war in West Asia
Escalatory risks in West Asia will remain without a ceasefire in Gaza
Israel’s “pre-emptive” strike on Lebanon on August 25 and Hezbollah’s rocket and drone attacks on Israel underline the complexities and escalatory risks of the raging multi-party war in West Asia since October 2023. While the main theatre is Gaza, which Israel has been mercilessly pounding since the October 7 Hamas attack, the conflict has effectively spread to Israel’s northern border and southern Lebanon. Over the past 10 months, Hezbollah, the Iran-backed Lebanese Shia militia, has launched hundreds of rocket attacks towards Israel, “in solidarity with the Palestinians”. Israel has responded with air strikes on Lebanon, killing Hezbollah operatives and civilians. The trigger for the latest flare-up was the Israeli killing of Fuad Shukr, a senior commander of Hezbollah, in a strike in Beirut on July 31 — the day Israel killed Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. On August 25, after striking hundreds of Hezbollah targets, Israel said the Shia group was planning to carry out a large-scale attack and that its assault was defensive. But the massive strike did not deter Hezbollah from launching over 300 katyusha rockets and drones towards Israel, killing at least one soldier and wounding several.
After Sunday’s pre-dawn bombardments, both sides have signalled a de-escalation. Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah says his group achieved its targets, while Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said his country does not want a regional war. Yet, neither side is ready to back off from escalatory cycles. It is clear that Israel is not in a hurry to wrap up its devastating offensive in Gaza, which has killed over 40,000 Palestinians. The U.S. supports and mediates a ceasefire, but backs Israel’s war efforts through defence supplies and diplomatic protection. Hezbollah says it will not stop attacking Israel as long as the Gaza war continues. By bombing Hezbollah and taking down its commanders, Israel is trying to change the reality on the ground, but Hezbollah’s continued attacks, which have turned northern Israel into a depopulated furling zone, suggest this approach is not very successful. When Israel began attacking Hamas, it vowed to dismantle the group. Today, even the Israeli Defense Forces doubt whether it can be destroyed. While the war on Hamas still continues, the conflict with Hezbollah is escalating. By destroying Hamas, Israel wanted to strengthen its security in the south, but the widening war has heightened its insecurity in the north. And Israel does not have any easy military solution for Hezbollah. As long as the war in Gaza continues, the path towards a wider regional war will remain open.